Sunday, 4 September 2011

analysis 1

where to start ?

I start with a list of all companies that have risen more than 45% over a period of 10 working days (2 weeks) since the 1st Jan 2011

this is the first listing to the right - the list is cropped because it is quite large which is really great news as it means I have a good chance of picking one of these - there are about 7 per day - and many more if I reduce the % increase, 45 sounds like a good number at the moment

I am also looking just at the close prices, the thinking is that these are a little more stable than looking at the close at the start and then highs, but would presume this would give me more results, and there are quite enough to go through at the moment

then I choose a company at random... lets look at HUM - the second chart list to the right and appears in the list under 11 Aug 2011

this is really where the science takes a back seat and the art begins

a cursory scan of the charts and we see that in the sixth chart the vi psar goes from negative (below the vi line) to positive (above the vi line) at exactly the date indicated, the vertical black line

if we only looked for this rule then we would get a lot of companies being returned and with an unacceptable future rise/decrease ratio, we need to add other indicator formulae

another quick glance and we see the stochastic k has a minimum of 0 over the last 10 days prior to the vertical black line, something that I have found happens very often on risers

I create a new alpha and put these analysis in...

and the analysis continues, taking into consideration anything that you can think of that might possibly bring the listing to risers only without over restricting so that no companies are returned, ones that I am looking into at the moment are gradients and differences between different psars, ahh... and then there is the riemann hypothesis , my search for pattern recognition and indicator analysis has on more than one occasion lead back to this, more on this at some point

writing this and looking at the charts makes it look interesting to calculate the stochastic on the psar of the psar on close

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