Friday, 20 July 2012

tweedle dee or tweedle dum

An interesting fight is currently being waged between 2 of my success coefficients - with the current proponents being QPP and SNRP (on the LSE).

Both companies had been tweeted yesterday.

The first coefficient relates to the number of trace formulae triggered; the second relates to the number of times the formulae have triggered in the past averaged over the triggered formulae.

The numbers respectively are:

QPP      37        2.946
SNRP    233     2.09

Of note are that all of the numbers for each company are outstanding, 233 is a very high number (and if you remember we carry out around 300,000 per company), with 2.946 also being a respectful number (and has the meaning that from all of the 37 formulae that were triggered yesterday, the number of times these were triggered and reached an 11.5% increase over the subsequent 5 days was 2.946, to get more than 2 triggers is extraordinary)

But lets say we need to go for one, which one to choose. Better number of triggers or better times triggered, or a relationship between these.

Currently today QPP is up 5.77% and SNRP is up 2.33%, so at the moment it is coming down on the side of tweedle dum (or success coefficient number 2), but I am now looking at the relationship between these numbers.

To complete the set for yesterday and as a note, the remaining tweets were:

PVCS  145  2.000
STCM  31   2.000
AGY     4    2.000
CYAN 15   2.000

For reference I have added these two success coefficients onto the tweeted information


  1. With the final daily figures of QPP +7.69% and SNRP +2.37%

    This is a very limited result set, but indicates that it is better to trade on the total numbers rather than the number of triggers, but will be following these companies over the next 5 or so days - 2.37% over one day is not so bad if we can produce this as a viable trade strategy.

  2. Looking back over the tweets QPP has been tweeted since the 28th Jun when its closing price was 5.10 - it closed yesterday at 7.00