ORE

As an indicator of what I have found to be a prediction of something going on lets make a prediction here. ORE.

ORE came up on the Tweet yesterday for triggering today. The tweet reads:

#LON:#ORE:14-MAR-13:#LSE_trace::49.6:100:4:.4 http://bit.ly/XBPr8r 

and currently there are sells of 2,235,040, and only sells (at least that is what LSE is reporting, L2 shows about 50% of these are buys),  with the price holding at 0.41 with a spread of 2.5% and is a fair size at 8.8m GBP cap.

what oasis is saying is that over the next 5 days ORE should reach 0.41 plus 47.1% (on average) giving  0.60, but as I am only looking for 11.5% I am looking for 0.47 (0.41 * (11.5% required + 2.5% spread)).

Lets play.

NEOS

Would like to highlight NEOS which came up on oasis Twitter feed on 22nd Feb with a closing price of 0.105, it is currently 0.71 with an increase today of 389%.

Watching the other companies coming in on target too, although the 5 day rise is actually currently running at about 10 days, but each day at least one comes in that has been highlighted, as well as NEOS we have ARC up 16.7% just today.

I am working on the some more statistics on the rises and also tying in the success coefficients to the spread.

The Twitter feed link is in the heading of this blog, just above.

TRV

TRV did very nicely today after being triggered yesterday, up 18%

CAD

CAD is doing quite nicely today, was triggered on the 12th Feb, and today (15th Feb) currently up 29%.

Success coefficients

I have aligned the trace and candlestick success coefficients to mean the same - tweedle dee is expected percentage rise and tweedle dum is the percentage time this has occurred.

As an example below is the tweet from today for a company named CAF:

@spacecadet99999: 

#LON:#CAF:13-FEB-13:#LSE_trace::23.9:100:16: 4.13 http://t.co/MPZaFd4x

This reads as:

On the London stock exchange, for the company CAF, on 13th Feb 2013, the trace was triggered with a prior 100% success rate of obtaining 11.5% increase within the following 5 days, on the 16 occurrences this trigger happened previously, with previously the price rise averaged 23.9%, and had today a volume 4.13 times the average 3 monthly volume. The final piece is the link to the LSE website for this company.

So dee is 23.9, and dum is 100, along with the count (16) and the volume analysis (4.13) gives the map for this company. 

STK

STK from two days ago (in the legs for opera page) just went up 40% today. I will change the limits on the tweets for this type of exceptional situation.

Bid and Ask Size

It seems that trades that are dealt with by Market Makers work on the basis of Size both for Buying and Selling.

What this has meant to me is that trying to sell 100,000 BLU when the Ask Size is 70,000, the trade will not appear on L2 and that more disturbingly it may not get executed, even if the price is within limits.

Thankfully the Bid and Ask Size are on L2 and so this is another aspect of trading that really needs to be added to the whole process and which I can monitor now.

Learning something every day.