IAP JRS STAN on psar on rsi on beta4 on oasis

getting more companies to monitor and also the following three just flipped for the psar on the rsi

IAP

STAN

JRS

decided to call my system oasis

RQIH

to recap, to the right is the listing for beta4, we are waiting for the last column to turn from 'd' to 'u' (this is the psar on rsi) - we had a 10% rise for FUM and we have our next candidate

RQIH

falling into place - L2

beta4

to the right is a view of the current companies highlighted via my beta4 analysis for today

so that you can see what companies are listed, here they are:


SMWH
JRS
VMED
TLPR
GKN
MJW
STAN
JW
AFF
ISP6
HOIL
GKN
IAP
KSK
HOIL
AFF
FSV
UBM
IUKP
FSV
HSL
HSL
ISG
RQIH
BEM
FUM

this is a listing by date and some companies are listed on consecutive days, this seems to be a good indicator of an uptrend starting but we are waiting for the last column in the report to change to 'u' from 'd' - the last one that did this as you can see is FUM, and also you can see that we reached 10% on FUM in the first 5 days

there are two issues that I have been trying to resolve - the first is to weed out the beta4 that are not attaining 11.5% (this is 30% of the companies that are highlighted on average), and the second, the ones that are highlighted, when and at what price should it be bought and then at what price should it be sold

these really amount to the same question, as is evident in the numbers on the report that the company share price _will_ go above the share price at the point of highlighting (at least this has been indicated 100% of the time at the moment for beta4), the question is by how much and when.

the one question then is - when do I buy and at what price, and when do I sell and at what price

it cannot be the simplistic 11.5% that we have been working with because this arbitrarily can increase losses and decrease gains - we have to be smarter than this

one cleverness comes in the form of Quotestream L2 (Level 2)

for 20/month I have mine from iii and am working through understanding what this can and cannot do - a really big thank you to Cat7 on the LSE Shares bb and the fantasy games for pointing me in this direction - Cat7 commented on this blog here and I am working through all of the other comments made as well

but from the little experience I have with L2 now it seems that this is an indicator of buys and sells, how many and at what price, and looking at the Market Depth screen one can gauge what to do when - if you go to the LSE fantasy games you will see how effective this strategy can be

searching youtube for Level 2 tutorials gives many results( here and here as examples) , but all start with one already having picked a stock to L2 and quoting SoulOfWigan on the LSE games


'My advice is to look at the new RNS and keep your eye on the new hot chat on the left of the LSE page. I hope this helps folks'

the RNS link for LSE/AIM is here - again quoted from the games forum

one really needs to see what Cat7 and SoulOfWigan (SoW) are capable of with 10k in one month - round 5 is 2m (yes 2 million) and is the highest, but on average the top each month is about 100k - and also the premise being that what is learned in the fantasy games can be directly related to real life

without Cat7's or SoW's experience, and until I get anything close, what can I do

I am watching the companies highlighted on my beta analysis (I have 6 betas at the moment, and am working on 32 alphas all in varying degrees of success, the majority of alphas fail spectacularly - would be great if I was shorting ) and linking the analysis with L2 and checking performance


I feel as if I am one step closer

psar on rsi on beta4

Beta4

Quite a few companies highlighted - what we are waiting for here is that the most recent companies change the last column from 'd' to 'u'

this last column is the psar on the rsi (I have noticed that this is a good indicator of an uptrend start, after all the other beta4 analysis has completed)

from what we can see then is that currently we are into FUM, with quite a few others on the watch list

the numbers in the columns are for 5 days, 10 days, 15 days and 30 day highs as a percentage - these will not exist for companies highlighted yesterday

so.. HOIL was highlighted yesterday, and with the rest of the companies I am monitoring the others (such as FSV, HSL, etc)

busy busy busy

was worried about SGP for a moment there but have seen a 12.2% gain from our standing start (the price decreased quite rapidly from when the company was highlighted on beta4, but gained over 20% over the last 2 days)


each day I am refining and adding to my betas - it really is not easy - to help I have added to the output analysis listings of % growth over 5, 10, 15 and 30 days - this gives an indication of how well the betas play - from the figures and screen shot to the right we can see that beta4 is not bad at all over 'up to 30 days' - as an example for the month of Oct we would have attained a 67% success rate obtaining greater than 11.5% gain, with the remaining 5 (out of 15) still averaging about 5% gain

from the screen shot we can see that UMC hit 11.5% within the first 10 days of being indicated and that ALL seems to on the list at the moment - watching ALL closely at the moment

so currently for the companies that have been highlighted previously - 7 successes, 5 waiting:

14 Oct 2011 HLCL 195.7 218 201
13 Oct 2011 JPR 4.25 4.7 4.95 17-Oct 2011
13 Oct 2011 SGP 688 767 779.5 9-Nov 2011
12 Oct 2011 COST 209 233 210
7 Oct 2011 PHNX 475 529 527.5 almost 11.5% on 17 Oct 2011
6 Oct 2011 UKC 34.25 38.2 39 7-Oct 2011
29 Sep 2011 JPB 81 90 89 3-Nov-2011
28 Sep 2011 NWS 85 94.7 95 20-Oct 2011
28 Sep 2011 MWA 4.5 5 4.74
20 Sep 2011 BOY 268 298 279 303 28-OCT-2011
19 Sep 2011 SMDR 206 229 214
19 Sep 2011 WSH 249 278 250

how we doing ?

below is the current list of companies highlighted in previous posts

I am monitoring the prices of the companies that have not achieved the 11.5% to ensure that they are still on track

what we can see is that it is not difficult to choose a riser - all are up from the original date price, except SGP and I am looking further into this and wondering if this a timing issue on the beta because the current price is up from yesterday by 2%, it all depends where it goes now - my indicator says up



the columns are

date
company
original price on date
11.5% increase
high since original date
date if the the price has achieved the 11.5% increase - line also highlighted in blue


14 Oct 2011 HLCL 195.7 218 201
13 Oct 2011 JPR 4.25 4.7 4.95 17 Oct 2011
13 Oct 2011 SGP 688 767 687
12 Oct 2011 COST 209 233 210
7 Oct 2011 PHNX 475 529 527.5 almost 11.5% on 17 Oct 2011
6 Oct 2011 UKC 34.25 38.2 39 7 Oct 2011

29 Sep 2011 JPB 81 90 84
28 Sep 2011 NWS 85 94.7 95 20 Oct 2011
28 Sep 2011 MWA 4.5 5 4.74
20 Sep 2011 BOY 268 298 279
19 Sep 2011 SMDR 206 229 214
19 Sep 2011 WSH 249 278 250

for the last couple of days there have been no companies highlighted from my current batch of beta - working hard on new ones

HLCL

HLCL

beta4

currently 195.75, looking for 218

DYOR & DD

Please have a look at the early posts to see trading philosophy and setup (here), chart descriptions on MXP post (here)

JPR

JPR

beta4

currently 4.25, looking for 4.7

DYOR & DD

Please have a look at the early posts to see trading philosophy and setup (here), chart descriptions on MXP post (here)

fish of different kettles

I am seeing quite a few hits on this blog from countries other than the UK

If you would like analysis on other exchanges please email or comment and I will add - NASDAQ anyone ?

SGP

SGP

beta4

currently 688, looking for 767

DYOR & DD

Please have a look at the early posts to see trading philosophy and setup (here), chart descriptions on MXP post (here) - any comments gratefully received

COST

COST currently 209, looking for 233

beta4

DYOR & DD

Please have a look at the early posts to see trading philosophy and setup (here), chart descriptions on MXP post (here)

PHNX

beta4

PHNX - currently 475 looking for 529

DYOR & DD !

Please have a look at the early posts to see trading philosophy and setup (here), chart descriptions on MXP post (here)

UKC

UKC

beta4

currently 34.25, looking for 38.2

DYOR and DD

chart to the right ->

bouncing 50 euro cent coins off of europe's bum

a small note on the previous companies - the fact that they have not increased as expected is I believe partly due to the current uncertain situation in Europe, what I can say is that the companies below have not decreased to any level related to other companies, and that charts on all of the companies continue to look good.

I have added analysis of the greater Global Indexes and will be making comparisons between these and my alphas for a better understanding of Global positions - another late night coming up.

JPB

and today's beta4 is JPB

- DYOR and DD

chart to the right ->

currently 81.49 looking for 90.86

MWA NWS

beta5 both

MWA currently 4.5 looking for 5.01

NWS currently 85 looking for 94.7

charts to the right ->

Do Your Own Research and Due Diligence

BOY, SMDR, WSH

the interesting aspect of these three likely lads is that whilst pretty much everything else is down, these three are up between 3.5 and 6.9%

bodes well for beta4

BOY

BOY, I hope you are taking notes - chart to the right - currently 268, looking for 298

again DYOR and due diligence

SMDR

SMDR - 206 today, looking for 229

again DYOR (do your own research) and analysis, chart to the right:

WSH

so where does all this analysis, charts, blogging get us ?

I get a list of companies each day from my betas now that on the face of it look promising for an 11.5% rise over about 3 to 5 days.

with the usual 'DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH' caveat and I take no responsibility on your trading actions, I dont know your trading schemes or limits or anything else, I will now publish the companies coming up in the best betas each day.

this is beta4, a complex analysis of the rsi, vi, psars, macd and adx, and then another analysis on the psar of the rsi.

so for today its WSH, charts to the right, currently at 249, therefore looking for 278.

100%ers and betas

the only problem of finding a 100%er is that the companies occur, in the instance of beta1, every 6 months, only need another 36 of these and I am away :)

I have so many alpha's now that it is difficult keeping track as to which have completed development - alphas are now turning into betas when complete

DPL and GEM, yey

balancing an elephant on the edge of a razor blade

alpha16 is a strange one - it seems to highlight specific months and especially Aug 2011 and right now, and what is more important is that the trend post buy signal is pretty much always in the up direction with a clear indication on the psar of the rsi of the close.
the reason that this seems to be period dependent could be that this alpha may be following a greater trend.

alpha16 is approximately:
report all companies that are for volume shares, the stochastic on vi is 100 and the stochastic on the macd is 0, the psar trigger on the rsi on the close must be d to u, the stochastic of the psar of close must be 0, there must have been a stochastic equal to 0 over the last 7 days and the close rsi must be less than 20 over the last 7 days.

the relationship between the days, the indicators and the analysis is vital.

the admin page and an example company CTY is included to the right

psar on rsi

just for fun ran the psar against the rsi and it looks like a very good indicator - developing the next alpha on this just now - its the last chart in the image to the right, and this is for MXP

rsi

from a kind LSE forum txter it seems that the rsi is an indicator often used, a little digging and obtaining the logic, and a late night and my system is updated with this as well as incorporated into my newest alpha

still going through the results but all the companies checked until now follow an upward trend post signal for this new alpha

to the right is a random company XCH with the RSI the last chart superimposed onto the close price (black) for reference

there is a slight dip post buy signal at the moment on this company that needs ironing out but it is still in development

this alpha did though signal a buy at the start of an almost 100% increase in the stock price so things are looking up

EOG sample

EOG is again quite interesting at the moment and am awaiting to see how things pan out - the psars, macd, adx and vi look good yet the st looks very high

more charts

the stochastic on the psar of the psar on close has proved to be quite interesting and is detailed for MXP on the eighth chart in the diagram to the right - very cyclic and looking to be following rise and falls quite closely - while we are at it lets add the stocastics for the psars on the vi and the macd as well, just for fun you understand

will add to the next alpha to see how this goes - the calcs are running for all companies at the moment

just a note here - its not important to know the derivation of the charts, or what a stochastic means or the other terms, apart from that it goes from 0 to 100, the important thing here is to establish a link between the pattern on each chart and the close price in black
on each chart if we can say something like 'buy when red > 80 and sell when < 10' with some degree of certainty then we stand a chance

analysis 1

where to start ?

I start with a list of all companies that have risen more than 45% over a period of 10 working days (2 weeks) since the 1st Jan 2011

this is the first listing to the right - the list is cropped because it is quite large which is really great news as it means I have a good chance of picking one of these - there are about 7 per day - and many more if I reduce the % increase, 45 sounds like a good number at the moment

I am also looking just at the close prices, the thinking is that these are a little more stable than looking at the close at the start and then highs, but would presume this would give me more results, and there are quite enough to go through at the moment

then I choose a company at random... lets look at HUM - the second chart list to the right and appears in the list under 11 Aug 2011

this is really where the science takes a back seat and the art begins

a cursory scan of the charts and we see that in the sixth chart the vi psar goes from negative (below the vi line) to positive (above the vi line) at exactly the date indicated, the vertical black line

if we only looked for this rule then we would get a lot of companies being returned and with an unacceptable future rise/decrease ratio, we need to add other indicator formulae

another quick glance and we see the stochastic k has a minimum of 0 over the last 10 days prior to the vertical black line, something that I have found happens very often on risers

I create a new alpha and put these analysis in...

and the analysis continues, taking into consideration anything that you can think of that might possibly bring the listing to risers only without over restricting so that no companies are returned, ones that I am looking into at the moment are gradients and differences between different psars, ahh... and then there is the riemann hypothesis , my search for pattern recognition and indicator analysis has on more than one occasion lead back to this, more on this at some point

writing this and looking at the charts makes it look interesting to calculate the stochastic on the psar of the psar on close

KEFI sample

and this is what I have on KEFI



the interesting thing here is that a lot could be made almost by just following the stochastics - it is very cyclic - buy on k < 5 sell on k > 80



chart definitions are on the MXP post

not all a bed of roses

just to prove that it is not all good, this is EOG from alpha11 with buy signal 16th march 2011, not good, not good at all

but it is not all bad, the good news is that out of 9 random companies researched only one was like this

alpha11 is still in development

chart definitions are on the MXP post

MXP - 3rd Sept 2011

and this is for my MXP brethren:

the first chart is close price in black, blue psar on close, red psar on open

the second chart is close black, close psar in red, and then psar on close psar in blue (yes psar on the psar)

the third chart is close black then a mash of psar on low, psar on high, psar on high up low down, psar on open up close down

the forth chart is adx with + in blue and - in red and adx in green, with the close manipulated to fit between 0 and 100

the fifth is the macd with the macd in red and the macd psar in green, zero is blue, close is black and manipulated to fit between min and max

the sixth chart is vi, vi in red, psar on vi in green, zero in blue, close is black and manipulated to fit between min and max

the seventh chart is the stochastic, red is k, blue is smoothed k (called d), green is smoothed smoothed k (called d1), black is close manipulated to fit between 0 and 100

the eighth, ninth and tenth charts on the more recent charts are the stochastics on vi, macd and psar(close),
and the eleventh chart is rsi and psar on rsi, again seen on more recent charts

ZOX sample

this is a randomly selected company from the top of the list - 31 Aug 2011 - this would be a good experiment to see if this share does reach 11.5% over the next 5-10 days



chart definitions are on the MXP post

TIG sample

from the alpha11 sample previously this is what I get from a randomly selected company from the bottom of the list, about march (in this case march 1st indicated by the vertical line):



just to confirm, I know nothing about TIG, all I do know is that with the analysis for alpha11 said to buy on march 1st



chart definitions are on the MXP post



in this case the 11.5% sell would have been met on about 25 may, if we bought at about 16 and sold at about 18, but I would miss the close price going to 23

system sample

this is what the alpha development system looks like, run for alpha 11 on Sept 3 2011:

the first 2 input fields are the name and reporting start date

the next section is the sql statement to be run against the database and is sectioned into separate lines for ease of reading and use - the where clause is the one that takes the most development.
it is the where clause that governs the companies that are returned.
this whole statement is linked to the field marked sql: just below the word success, this field would contain the whole statement run against the database as the database would see it, this aids debug - the success word is there to indicate that the report completed successfully

the reset function resets all the fields to default values

and then we get to the output data


the first column is the company with a link to the LSE page for that company (London South East)

the second column is the date of the buy signal with a direct link to the charts for the company on the LSE site

the third column is the date reference

the forth column (A) links directly to the underlying data in the system for the company

the fifth column (G) is the system graphs, examples posted later

the sixth column is the close price for the particular day

the colons are place holders for other information that can be added if needed

day 3 - nothing for free

all of this has now been running for one year.

has this worked ? predominantly yes

getting up signals is not too much of a problem, with the best alpha's this is over 80%, one alpha approaching 100% (alpha7) but only produces a stock pick on average about once per month, which is great if you want 11.5% per month, I need 20 alpha7's.

the sell signal is a little more problematic

currently I am working on a flat 11.5% up from buy price to sell, which I am trying to reduce to between 3 and 5 days giving me the required about 3% per day.

my trading strategy needs some thought now

day 2 - next 6 months

so here we are with a system that downloads eod data each evening, uploads to a database and then calculates some indicators

psars are calculated on close, open, high, low and vol (although psar on vol is a little strange to say the least because the numbers involved are so large), as well as psars of open up and close down and high up and low down (psars trip at the top and bottom of trends, so these switch the up and down basis)
to make sure we have a trend we need the other indicators:
adx, vi and st are calculated as per wikipedia.
psars on vi and macd are also calculated just for fun and have proven very useful, as is the psar on the close psar

I enabled the embedded web server in the database and output reports to a web page, my ip is static and the database allows the creation of http code - I have programmed an http5 canvas reporting system. OEL has apache 2.2, may use this if I split the server into web and dbase in the future, but simple is the name at the moment

the interesting analysis happens when I link the indicators... as these are the start of the stock picking process I have called these alpha's.

alpha's consist of statements such as

show me all companies which have an average volume greater than 10 x 10,000 / close price (indicating that buying and selling of the shares will not be a problem), that over the last 10 days have had a minimum st of 0, +adx is greater than -adx, psar on vi is positive but was negative over the last 3 days, psar on macd is positive but was negative over the 3 previous days and the psar on close is positive with the previous 3 days being negative, and give me all companies that follow this rule from 1st Jan 2010 to the present day

this is approximately alpha 12, an alpha that works very well

the coding of alpha's interface is also via a web page, so the development cycle is I pick which alpha I want on a web page, edit, save, run, check resulting company charts, all via the web.
for live alpha, I merely run and due diligence the companies coming out with the date of today.

I run this statement from a specific date and can gauge effectiveness of alpha's, at the same time have programmed a routine that automatically goes through the alpha's and indicates which are good and which are not, this takes a lot of processing. current analysis is choosing companies at random and checking out movement, if price goes up after indicated date, then choose another company until I find one that does not follow the up rule and start the process of finding out what indicator runs against the other companies. I do this iteratively, each time changing the code and then running and checking again. each time the number of returned companies that follow the rule reduces - the art is to not restrict the companies to an extent that no companies are returned, but return all companies that increase in value over the proceeding days.

the production of a fully tested alpha takes weeks

the result is that I have built up and am building a set of alpha's that under specific circumstances indicate a good probability that the company share price will go up...

day 1 - first 3 months

with an interest in number manipulation, databases, finance and beating systems, I have set about doing all 4 - this is the story of my journey

trading, that sounds interesting. a little digging and the next thing I know I am developing a system and buying a server.

so...

lets have some fun with the stock market, all indicators point to this being the biggest game in town

it seems that this game is where you pick a company, buy some stock in said company and watch while either the value of your stock increases or doesn't - the first stage of this process is the choosing of the company stock, and where I start

anyone who has tried to stock pick knows it is not easy, random picking works randomly, which means that there has to be a system.

the premise is that money can be made from stocks and that the system is geared in some way making this possible - there is no point in carrying on if this is not true -
if the premise is true then we can get data, manipulate it, report on it to pick stocks with certain indicators/patterns and trade

dont want to get bogged down with the due diligence although some has to be done - this is not the point and as a black art as stock picking itself and highly dependent on market sentiment - I have heard of systems tracking posts on forums, texts and news reports looking for company names and then calculating the overall tone of the post to indicate sentiment - this is not what this is about but I am not discounting it in the future.

its a game, ok with real money but still a game, a serious game.

and so to set up...

what is available data wise ?
seems that easy to get data is stock close, open, high, low and vol at the end of a day
(I am looking at stocks only at the moment, options and derivatives will come later as will shorting - at the moment keeping it simple and going long on (buying) equity only)
there is other information available but I have to start somewhere.

what indicators are out there - indicators that tell us how a stock is doing ?
I have chosen:
psar, vi, adx, st, macd and rsi - Wikipedia, yey - all will be explained - there are others, I have chosen these for the moment
psar is interesting as this is the one indicator that tries to look into the future whilst the others are looking at the past. remember the name... parabolic sar

how about another goal ? 1 million, 1 year, from 10,000 which equates to approx 2% per day compound - surely this is possible ? on 2% this gets interesting at about day 90 when funds reach about 50,000

my system... I like oracle. I like unix and windows. unix for the server (oracle enterprise linux), windows 7 and ubuntu for the laptop for testing
the server is currently a 12 core Xeon with 24Gb ram and ssds, lots of fans and lots of noise, and a ups;
the laptop is an i7, dual boot win7 and ubuntu and gets very hot when in full calc mode
downloaded data manipulated with sed and awk, scheduled with crontab, and uploaded to the database, validated and then the calcs start, all in the evening over night...

buying stock... a First Direct sharedealing account seems a fair place to start, internet based - there is stamp duty and trading costs, must remember to add these to the 2% per day.

being uk based I look at LSE and see where data is out there - first land on google finance.
create script (wget) to download all data via http from all companies each evening... I guess google does not like to be whacked and found data missing and a rather nice error message saying that google thinks that the ip address is up to no good and has decided not to send, reeks havoc with my calcs. the exact same thing then happens with yahoo finance
need a reliable source of end of day (eod) data - a quick search and 25 a month later I have a regular feed of eod data, and ftp access, yey.

so the scene is set...